OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033: New Insights and Emerging Questions on Rethinking Dietary Guidelines
In recent years, the sharp escalation of agricultural input costs has raised significant concerns about global food security. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033, now in its 20th edition, offers a comprehensive ten-year projection for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels.
Produced jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), with contributions from member countries and international commodity organisations, the Outlook has become a key reference for policy planning. This milestone edition reflects on two decades of agricultural developments. It provides forward-looking insights within the context of persistent economic risks, elevated energy prices, and the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions, and climate change. Let us explore the key findings and perspectives in the 2024–2033 report, focusing on the emerging questions that may challenge and reshape existing dietary guidelines.
Food consumption estimates, a notable decline in per capita meat consumption
As early as the 2023–2032 edition, Outlook enhanced its food consumption estimates by incorporating methodologies that account for food loss and waste in support of SDG 12.3, which aims to halve per capita food waste by 2030. A comparison between the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 and the 2024-2033 edition shows a notable decline in per capita meat consumption across all categories and regions, with the most significant drops in poultry, particularly in the United States (−17.2 kg) and across the OECD (−10.4 kg). Pigmeat consumption remains highest in the European Union, though it also decreases, while beef and sheep meat show more moderate yet consistent declines.
However, these reductions appear too steep to reflect actual changes in dietary habits. The reason lies in a methodological shift: the newer Outlook editions (2023-2032 and 2024-2033) now calculate consumption based on “actual retail consumption”, that is, the amount truly consumed by individuals, rather than the previous “apparent availability” method, which did not account for losses and waste along the supply chain. As a result, direct comparisons with older data can be misleading if the methodological update is not considered.
India and Southeast Asian countries, new key drivers of global consumption
Over the past 20 years, emerging economies have increasingly shaped global agricultural and fisheries markets, a trend expected to continue. Consumption growth has been driven by rising populations and incomes in low- and middle-income countries, boosting production through innovation and greater use of natural resources. While China previously led global consumption growth, its influence is projected to decline due to slower income growth, stabilised diets, and population decline. By contrast, India and Southeast Asian countries are expected to become key drivers of global consumption, together accounting for 31% of growth by 2033.
The total use of agricultural and fisheries products is projected to grow by 1.0% annually over the next decade, located largely in low- and middle-income countries. Global food consumption is projected to increase by 1.2% annually due to population and income growth. In most regions, the growth of feed use of crops is expected to outpace growth in direct food use, driven by the projected shift to higher shares of animal-derived foods in diets and the resulting expansion and intensification of livestock production. Calorie intake is projected to rise 7% in middle-income countries by 2033, mainly due to higher consumption of staples, animal products, and fats. In low-income countries, the increase will be just 4%, which is too slow to meet the SDG 2 goal of ending hunger by 2030. Limited incomes also hinder dietary improvements in these regions, leading to continued dependence on staple foods. In contrast, high-income countries show stabilising or slightly declining intakes of fats and sweeteners, reflecting growing concerns about health and sustainability.
Less food loss and waste, less GHG emissions and fewer undernourished people
Over the next decade, agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions intensity is expected to decline as production growth relies more on productivity gains than land expansion. While direct emissions from agriculture are projected to rise by 5%, this increase is slower than overall production growth, indicating a relative decoupling. Productivity improvements will drive output, especially crop, livestock, and fish production. Still, persistent productivity gaps in low- and middle-income countries may continue to affect farm incomes’ food security and increase reliance on food imports.
Halving food loss and waste by 2030 could cut global agricultural GHG emissions by 4% and reduce the number of undernourished people by 153 million. This year’s Outlook scenario shows that such reductions would lower food prices, boosting intake in low- and lower-middle-income countries. However, while consumers and the environment would benefit, producers could face challenges from lower prices and reduced production.
International agricultural trade remains crucial for global food security, with 20% of calories traded worldwide. While trade volumes are expected to grow, geopolitical tensions and the pandemic have exposed vulnerabilities. Net exports will rise from Latin America, North America, and Europe, while Asia and Africa will increasingly rely on imports. Stable, resilient trade systems are essential to ensure food access and support rural livelihoods. Although real international prices for key commodities may slightly decline, this might not lower retail food prices due to domestic inflation, currency issues, and high local costs, posing risks for vulnerable populations.
Existing guidelines may underestimate the nutritional role of meat
The latest revisions in how per capita meat consumption is estimated, shifting from apparent availability to actual intake adjusted for food loss and waste, raise several important considerations for developing and updating dietary guidelines. One concern is whether current dietary recommendations on meat intake should be revised now that more accurate data reveal lower actual consumption levels in many regions. This leads to the question of whether existing guidelines may unintentionally underestimate the nutritional role of meat, especially where intake is already insufficient.
Another consideration is ensuring that dietary guidelines remain consistent with climate objectives while guaranteeing adequate nutritional intake. There is a need to assess whether it is possible to balance public health goals with environmental sustainability without further discouraging meat consumption in populations where it is already low.
It also becomes necessary to question whether current guidelines are realistic and applicable in low-income countries, where economic barriers limit the shift to more nutrient-rich diets, including animal-sourced foods. Whether dietary recommendations should reflect nutritional needs and actual food access is worth considering in these contexts.
The potential impact of food loss and waste reduction strategies also raises concerns regarding the livelihoods of food producers. Lower production and prices could negatively affect farmers’ incomes, prompting a reflection on whether overly restrictive recommendations on meat consumption might harm rural economies without delivering significant public health gains. Finally, there is the question of whether dietary guidelines adequately account for losses along the entire food supply chain, not just at the consumer level. It may be more effective to adopt systemic approaches to improve overall food use efficiency rather than focusing primarily on reducing individual consumption.